The probability of a Heroic MP40 volksgrenadier!

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[Mysthalin]

Hi guys. As some of you may know I am doing economics at university, and part of this course is doing some fairly advanced statistics (though by now we're mostly done with the mathsy side and are delegating all our work to be done by computers instead while we just read a few numbers and get paid for it).

As your retired king of stats, I decided to come along and give you one more present, just to create chaos, mind-fuckery, and possibly finally rid the forum of all those silly threads started after somebody's KCH randomly get raped by a squad of riflemen.

I will calculate the possibility of you one day witnessing a heroic MP40 volksgrenadier - with no doctrinal upgrades - where he deals anywhere between 7.616-11.9 DPS at long range for an entire battle (as long as he doesn't move while shooting).

To calculate this, I will be taking the binomial distribution of the volksgrenadier accuracy and approximating it to a normal distribution. To those of you with no statistical background - that means I will take the fact volksgrenadiers usually hit 1 out of 10 times at long range, and put it on a (not shown here) graph that looks a bit like a mountain and represents pooled possibility.

I assume that the other factors influencing DPS other than accuracy (Burst, Cooldown, Reload) generally remain the same at the average level (hence I'm taking the "agreed" base DPS level of 1.19 at long range for the volksgrenadier MP40).

I know that the MP40 has a hit-rate of 0.1, meaning the standard deviation is 0.09 (meaning you can generally "expect" the hit-rate to sway anywhere between 0.01-0.19)

What i'm interested in, though - is getting the probability of the MP40 having a nice and steady 0.64-1.0 hit rate (to deal between 7.616 and 11.9 DPS).

Hence, I look for the number of standard deviations between my wanted value (0.64) and the one that is "likely" (0.1).

z=(0.64-0.1)/0.09=6

Now, 6 standard deviations is ridiculously... rare. But the fact remains that it is still very much so possible that it will, one day - happen.

How often can it happen?

It will be one volksgrenadier in every 1.014.713.328 of his MP40-wielding brothers to manage such an amazing feat. To put into perspective - that is once every 200 million volks-squads, or, assuming all games are 2v2s where each axis player has 10 volks squads - every 10 million games.

Will you be the one to get this rare, yet epic, little volksy? And will you be able to save the replay and videotape his exploits? Only time will tell.

Mysth out.

[CommieKiller]

No offense, what a waste of time...

[Smokaz]

Very nice Mysthalin. Entertaining to read. Imagine the face on someone who sees a 1 man volksgrenadier pwn super hard. Although it would have been more interesting to read this is you have included what that dps could have been used to

Don't worry about these muffled swine - most people these days are too idiotic to appreciate work outside their own disipline. It's why manual workers in the west can charge so much money for basic services like plumbing and eletricians.

[Tymathee]

Nice. A lot to take in but nice. Volks grens still suck tho.

[Hicks58]

I'm overcome with awe, shock, and a level of WTF which is combined with a huge amount of why.

I'm with Smokaz on this one.

[Demon767]

http://youtu.be/RFZrzg62Zj0

[EliteGren]

Hi guys. As some of you may know I am doing economics at university, and part of this course is doing some fairly advanced statistics (though by now we're mostly done with the mathsy side and are delegating all our work to be done by computers instead while we just read a few numbers and get paid for it).

As your retired king of stats, I decided to come along and give you one more present, just to create chaos, mind-fuckery, and possibly finally rid the forum of all those silly threads started after somebody's KCH randomly get raped by a squad of riflemen.

I will calculate the possibility of you one day witnessing a heroic MP40 volksgrenadier - with no doctrinal upgrades - where he deals anywhere between 7.616-11.9 DPS at long range for an entire battle (as long as he doesn't move while shooting).

To calculate this, I will be taking the binomial distribution of the volksgrenadier accuracy and approximating it to a normal distribution. To those of you with no statistical background - that means I will take the fact volksgrenadiers usually hit 1 out of 10 times at long range, and put it on a (not shown here) graph that looks a bit like a mountain and represents pooled possibility.

I assume that the other factors influencing DPS other than accuracy (Burst, Cooldown, Reload) generally remain the same at the average level (hence I'm taking the "agreed" base DPS level of 1.19 at long range for the volksgrenadier MP40).

I know that the MP40 has a hit-rate of 0.1, meaning the standard deviation is 0.09 (meaning you can generally "expect" the hit-rate to sway anywhere between 0.01-0.19)

What i'm interested in, though - is getting the probability of the MP40 having a nice and steady 0.64-1.0 hit rate (to deal between 7.616 and 11.9 DPS).

Hence, I look for the number of standard deviations between my wanted value (0.64) and the one that is "likely" (0.1).

z=(0.64-0.1)/0.09=6

Now, 6 standard deviations is ridiculously... rare. But the fact remains that it is still very much so possible that it will, one day - happen.

How often can it happen?

It will be one volksgrenadier in every 1.014.713.328 of his MP40-wielding brothers to manage such an amazing feat. To put into perspective - that is once every 200 million volks-squads, or, assuming all games are 2v2s where each axis player has 10 volks squads - every 10 million games.

Will you be the one to get this rare, yet epic, little volksy? And will you be able to save the replay and videotape his exploits? Only time will tell.

Mysth out.