New Ukraine thread

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[Sachaztan]

Since the last one got derailed lets make a new Ukraine thread.

Please no mentions of Hitler or WW2.

[Sachaztan]

Ukraine will not give up Crimea: acting foreign minister
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/08/us-ukraine-crisis-minister-idUSBREA270AB20140308

the ukraine will do a big fail if they thinking the nato will help vs russian.
the ukraine is not a member of the nato and so long russian not bomb poland or a other nato member they will do nothing.
and germany need the russian gas, so the policy will do nothing to, and that is it than...

Ukraine is already lost. They could try to send in troops to take it back and they would have EVERY RIGHT to do it, but what would happen then? They would get their asses kicked by Russia and I very much doubt NATO or EU will do anything about it. More likely it will be a Frozen conflict where the theft of Ukraine will become increasingly legitimized for every passing year until eventually Ukrainian nationalists and Crimean Tatars are the only ones that think Crimea belongs to Ukraine.

[Unkn0wn]

Ukraine is lost? I'd say the worst case scenario is Ukraine loses Crimea and EU-Russia throw some sanctions around. Then the conflict just simmers there for another decade or so until the Crimeans realise how shitty it is to be part of Russia and want to go back to being part of a by then more prosperous Ukraine. Of course Ukraine and the West don't want to give up Crimea but there is really nothing they can do about it if they're not willing to send in troops.

But Crimea is no economic loss to the Ukraine, it's an economic shithole that mainly lives off tourism, tourism they will see less off when they join Russia. (Russians prefer to go to Turkey and Europeans don't go and bathe in Russia, not worth the paperwork) So really, let them be part of Russia if that's what they really want, as long as the buck stops there and Russia keeps its hands off the rest of the country.

[brn4meplz]

Berlin '36 War '39

Sochi '14 War '17.

The world is willing to verbally support the Ukraine, but without some sort of muscle backing it's not going anywhere. They just can't stand up to the kind of defence spending and equipment Russia has.

It's not going to be like Chechnya again, the Russia learned a lot from their mistakes there. Even if you factor in their need to keep deployments throughout the rest of the country they still have an overwhelming presence in men and material.

I think the more interesting dynamic is the deployment of PMC's in a border dispute. PMC's being used as bodyguards/security staff in Afghanistan/Iraq is one thing. Even Mercenaries in African backwaters isn't on the same scale as PMC's in a tip of the spear type setting.

[Sachaztan]

Ukraine is lost? I'd say the worst case scenario is Ukraine loses Crimea and EU-Russia throw some sanctions around. Then the conflict just simmers there for another decade or so until the Crimeans realise how shitty it is to be part of Russia and want to go back to being part of a by then more prosperous Ukraine. Of course Ukraine and the West don't want to give up Crimea but there is really nothing they can do about it if they're not willing to send in troops.

I agree, except the worst case scenario would be a "proper" war between Ukraine and Russia. I don't think there will be one, but lets not delude ourselves by saying it's impossible.

But Crimea is no economic loss to the Ukraine, it's an economic shithole that mainly lives off tourism, tourism they will see less off when they join Russia. (Russians prefer to go to Turkey and Europeans don't go and bathe in Russia, not worth the paperwork) So really, let them be part of Russia if that's what they really want, as long as the buck stops there and Russia keeps its hands off the rest of the country.

Because of the geography (Crimea is connected to Ukraine but not Russia, and it's through Ukraine they get all their gas and electricity) and the amount of Russians in the eastern parts Russia might not settle with just Crimea... If Ukraine decides to shut down gas and electricity to Crimea then this would be excuse enough for Russia to steal some more land, and this would likely lead to war.

[Unkn0wn]

I'd say war is extremely unlikely as that may very well lead to a Western intervention or at the very least severe sanctions which Russia can't afford. (The Russian economy really isn't doing all that well at the moment, the last thing Putin wants is to exacerbate an already precarious situation at home) Putin played his hand, if he had any intention of taking it further that would have already happened (As speed is of the essence in these kind of things, like it was with grabbing Crimea)

Because of the geography (Crimea is connected to Ukraine but not Russia, and it's through Ukraine they get all their gas and electricity) and the amount of Russians in the eastern parts Russia might not settle with just Crimea... If Ukraine decides to shut down gas and electricity to Crimea then this would be excuse enough for Russia to steal some more land, and this would likely lead to war.

Take a look at the map though, it would be very easy to connect Crimea to the Russian black sea coast, I don't think any interruption of service would be a precursor to war, in the long run Russia is better off not having Crimea rely on Ukraine for anything anyway.

That being said, I think there is still a possibility that the Russian parliament, despite its original intentions, rejects the annexation on the basis of an international agreement that provides Crimea with greater autonomy and sees to the protection of the rights of Russian speakers in the Ukraine. Though that will require a herculean diplomatic effort from the West.

[Sachaztan]

That being said, I think there is still a possibility that the Russian parliament, despite its original intentions, rejects the annexation on the basis of an international agreement that provides Crimea with greater autonomy and sees to the protection of the rights of Russian speakers in the Ukraine. Though that will require a herculean diplomatic effort from the West.

I'd say it would look bad for Putin to give up Crimea though, but the Russian spin-doctors could probably fix that. It might even make him look like a magnanimous diplomat, champion of Russians everywhere and a force for world peace. Anyway this is the outcome I am hoping for, but like you said it would require "some" diplomacy from the West. USA in particular has to tone it down.

[aeroblade56]

all this talk of ukraine made me play Napoleon total war.

needless to say i played as russia and destroyed Crimea.





now i can trade with spain.

[Sachaztan]

I urge all of you to read voice of Russia and keep in mind this is the kind of news that the average Russian sees.

Here are some gems:

"The Ukrainian crisis has shown that the West sees Russia as its geopolitical enemy with whom a policy of deterrence is needed. Europe does not need a strong and confident Russia. The West fully realizes that a Russian-Ukrainian economic or defense alliance would considerably strengthen Russia's positions, burying all of the West’s plans and all of its policy of the past years. The old idea formulated at the Austrian-Hungarian command headquarters in the late 19th century, namely that Russia without Ukraine is a second-rate country, weighs hard on the minds of Western politicians, which explains why they are so keen to prevent a closer political, military or economic rapprochement between Russia and Ukraine,"

"Before answering this question I should mention that what's happened in Ukraine is part of a military and intelligence agenda. It is also part of a global economic agenda. It is in fact an act of warfare, because it is a coup d'état, which was supported by foreign powers and there ample evidence to that effect."

"And why did they choose to install the neo-Nazi puppets? For the simple reason that those individuals obey orders. And the orders will emanate from Washington and Brussels."

"With ultra-nationalism and anti-Jewish sentiment rife in Western Ukraine, it looks like history is repeating itself, this time with the West trying to pit Ukraine against Russia, just like it did back in the days when Nazism was on the rise in Germany."

"Truths are being turned on their heads. The heirs of the Soviets, which defeated the Nazi and liberated Europe at a great price, are now vilified, while fascist forces and Western militarism are on the march again. But behind the fascists stand the neoliberals and organized capital who really pull the strings, just like it was before WWII."

"Like the Western Ukraine that collaborated with the Nazis of the Second World War, Kiev is again overrun by neo-fascists that hate Russia and in their turn are used by the US and the European Union to bring down Russia."

The last three were from the same article btw.

[aeroblade56]

inb4wwR is made.

[nikomas]

Man, dem news sure read like a free, open, modern society!

[XIIcorps]

Who said the soviet union and stalinism is dead.

In4unknown defends national media being betrayed by western agenda.

[Sachaztan]

Russia invites right-wing populists to monitor the crimean "election"

Which is interesting, because they are just as much fascists as the right wing parties that Russians complain about in Ukraine.

[Bear]

I hope in, at the latest, 50 years will the russian country be a strong part of the EU and NATO.
For me it give no reason why this cant come but before must the human rights grow in russian.

Russia invites right-wing populists to monitor the crimean "election"

Which is interesting, because they are just as much fascists as the right wing parties that Russians complain about in Ukraine.

Like I wrote 2 weeks ago:

this, russians are only safe in russia, is for me also a fascist thinking....
the motivation of the Kremlin is clear...

[Unkn0wn]

Russian news is just Russian news, I don't think that many Russians watch it, and even if they did, it's not like public opinion is a force to keep into account when dealing with Putin lol. It's just there to legitimize the actions of the Russian government. And to be fair, the perspective in the Western media isn't entirely bias free either.

This is by far the best read on the whole subject IMO
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/10/ukraine-and-west-hot-air-hypocrisy-crimea-russia


Goes to show that we are dealing with shades of grey here at best, not the clear cut black vs white, good versus bad perspective that some western and Russian media portray it as.

[Sachaztan]

Russian news is just Russian news, I don't think that many Russians watch it, and even if they did, it's not like public opinion is a force to keep into account when dealing with Putin lol.

You are underestimating the power of propaganda. When pretty much every Russian news outlet sings the same song as Kremlin it will certainly have an effect on the Russian people.

And to be fair, the perspective in the Western media isn't entirely bias free either.

Maybe not, but the journalism there is many times more professional and neutral (except maybe mainstream US ones).

This is by far the best read on the whole subject IMO
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/10/ukraine-and-west-hot-air-hypocrisy-crimea-russia


Goes to show that we are dealing with shades of grey here at best, not the clear cut black vs white, good versus bad perspective that some western and Russian media portray it as.

That's actually a pretty damn good article.

[Unkn0wn]

Putin only has control of the Russian television and printed media, there is no censorship of the Russian internet pretty much, so the information is out there. I think you are overestimating the impact of television news in today's society. Also, there's Ukrainian news sites in Russian too, and quite a number of so called 'oppositional' sources for those that speak only Russian. Mind you I'm not saying the propaganda isn't working at all, but Russians tend to feel strongly about Crimea in the first place so this whole 'nazis are running the show' exaggeration might not even be the biggest factor affecting public opinion.

On that note, I sincerely hope the neonazis don't win big in the upcoming elections else it's going to be really awkward for the West. Unfortunately though, with the current situation I can imagine there's a high tide of nationalism in Western Ukraine right now. Which in turn will only exacerbate the current situation.

[tank130]

there is no censorship of the Russian internet pretty much, so the information is out there.

lol..... cuz I am going to rely on interwebz for reliable information?.........lmao

[Sachaztan]

Putin only has control of the Russian television and printed media, there is no censorship of the Russian internet pretty much, so the information is out there. I think you are overestimating the impact of television news in today's society. Also, there's Ukrainian news sites in Russian too, and quite a number of so called 'oppositional' sources for those that speak only Russian. Mind you I'm not saying the propaganda isn't working at all, but Russians tend to feel strongly about Crimea in the first place so this whole 'nazis are running the show' exaggeration might not even be the biggest factor affecting public opinion.

On that note, I sincerely hope the neonazis don't win big in the upcoming elections else it's going to be really awkward for the West. Unfortunately though, with the current situation I can imagine there's a high tide of nationalism in Western Ukraine right now. Which in turn will only exacerbate the current situation.

And exactly what kind of webpages do you think Russians use for information on the internet? The Russian propaganda machine is not limited to TV and radio.

[Unkn0wn]

I've lived in Russia, I speak some Russian and I have a Russian girlfriend. I can assure you the Russian Internet is not censored. Sure the state-run television and newspaper companies have websites that are super biased, but there is absolutely no restriction on Western or oppositional media. I've always found it odd, but I suppose Putin in his old-fashion ways doesn't see it as a potential threat.

I didn't say there's no propaganda on the russian internet, don't misquote me, I'm saying that unlike with television and newspapers there is actually an abundance of uncensored information available on the internet and as young Russians increasingly turn to the English language they are one group for instance that are not as easily affected by the propaganda. But at the end of the day, people in Russia are very apathetic when it comes to politics, for obvious historic reasons. As long as the economic situation doesn't worsen you won't see much dissent. (And I reckon that is one reason why sanctions are quite a threat to Putin's power)