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[Sachaztan]

There's rumors about a Russian attack north of Crimea (in mainland Ukraine) having been beaten back by the Ukrainians.

[Bear]

There's rumors about a Russian attack north of Crimea (in mainland Ukraine) having been beaten back by the Ukrainians.

Ukraine 'repels' Russian forces near Crimea
http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0315/602466-ukraine/

2 Pro-Russian Activists Killed in Eastern Ukraine
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140315/188453680/2-Killed-Several-Injured-in-Clashes-in-Eastern-Ukraine.html

[Bear]

Yesterday:
Russian airborne troops successfully conduct mass landing operation in Arctic
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/723515

Elite Russian airborne unit capture “arctic airfield” in record speed during combat exercise
http://groundreport.com/elite-russian-airborne-unit-capture-arctic-airfield-in-record-speed-during-combat-exercise/

Today:
Fallschirmjäger auf Festland gelandet: Ukraine meldet russischen Vorstoß
http://www.n-tv.de/politik/Ukraine-meldet-russischen-Vorstoss-article12468741.html

[Bear]

Max Uthoff describes how the Western propaganda has heated up the Ukraine conflict but in German language:

Max Uthoff verteidigt Wladimir Putin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC2Bxdqlm-E

[Bear]

ups, wrong threat, sry

New--> http://forums.europeinruins.com/index.php?topic=26770.msg481584#msg481584

[Sachaztan]

Seems like Russia won't annex Crimea outright, but instead have it as some kind of pseudo-vassal. The threat of an "intervention" in eastern Ukraine is still looming over Ukraine. 2 pro-russian casualties was enough to make Russia insinuate this, so if shit hits the fan for real then Russian tanks will be rolling in. I dread to think about what this would do to the global political and economical system.

[nikomas]

So the "Vote" for Crimea to join the Russian Federation was yes by 97%... Pardon me if I find that number somewhat suspicious. Not to mention them siezing that Gas Plant, they've already gone beyond the borders of Crimea.

[XIIcorps]

This is going to end badly.

[nikomas]

"President Putin has told a special session of Russia's parliament that "in people's heart of hearts, Crimea has always been part of Russia"."

It's goooooing, Goooooooooiiiii----

[XIIcorps]

"President Putin has told a special session of Russia's parliament that "in people's heart of hearts, Crimea has always been part of Russia"."

It's goooooing, Goooooooooiiiii----

in peoples heart of hearts, Singapore, Malta, Egypt, America, Canada, Philippine's, Australia, Jamaica, Gibraltar have always been a part of the United Kingdom

[Bear]

Crimea crisis: Shots fired and one officer wounded as 'Russian troops' storm Ukrainian military base in Simferopol
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/crimea-crisis-shots-fired-and-one-officer-wounded-as-russian-troops-storm-ukrainian-military-base-in-simferopol-9200203.html

apparently now begin the fight, this officer shall be already dead say german news

[Sachaztan]

I wonder what Putins end plan is. Does he even have one or does he just make it up as he goes?

Russia is afraid that Ukraine will become part of NATO and this explains in part what they have done so far. But by doing this they give Ukraine even more incentive to join NATO... Russia could give back Crimea as a bargaining chip to keep them away from EU/NATO, but that would be political suicide so that's not going to happen. Will Russia try to take eastern Ukraine to create a buffer zone against the west? They could also stage a coup to install a pro-Russian dictator. My guess is Russia is working all the angles at once so that no matter what happens they have a contingency plan for just that situation.

[Unkn0wn]

Well Russia won its hand, Ukraine will more than likely have to stay out of NATO and possibly even the EU while he gets Crimea on top of it. His plan is to keep Ukraine firmly in his sphere of influence, or failing that to make sure that all 'ethnically Russian territories' are integrated into the Russian state once again. Which for East Ukraine is quite dubious mind you, only 25 or so % of the population is actually Russian there. Honestly though, Crimea was inevitably a lost cause for Ukraine no matter how things would have turned out I think.

[Sachaztan]

Well Russia won its hand, Ukraine will more than likely have to stay out of NATO and possibly even the EU while he gets Crimea on top of it. His plan is to keep Ukraine firmly in his sphere of influence, or failing that to make sure that all 'ethnically Russian territories' are integrated into the Russian state once again. Which for East Ukraine is quite dubious mind you, only 25 or so % of the population is actually Russian there. Honestly though, Crimea was inevitably a lost cause for Ukraine no matter how things would have turned out I think.

But why would Ukraine stay out of NATO and EU now? Russia could threaten to invade to keep them out in the short term, but that won't work for long. Russia's actions has bred no small amount of animosity in Ukraine, and NATO membership is one of the few things that can deter Russia from new incursions.

[nikomas]

Isnt it more a matter of if the EU/NATO will accept Ukraine at this point, what with the "Don't escalate and resort to useless sanctions" policy they have going right now? Sanctions that Russia so far don't seem to give two shits about.

[Sachaztan]

You have to consider how little time that has passed and take into account the political process that has to take place before any drastic measures are taken. The situation can only be solved diplomatically if USA and EU cools their heads and take it easy, to follow the "German line". However the possibility to have a diplomatic solution looks less likely for every passing day so expect some real sanctions in the future.

[chain]

[Unkn0wn]

But why would Ukraine stay out of NATO and EU now? Russia could threaten to invade to keep them out in the short term, but that won't work for long. Russia's actions has bred no small amount of animosity in Ukraine, and NATO membership is one of the few things that can deter Russia from new incursions.

If anything giving Ukraine NATO membership would only exacerbate the current crisis and possibly result in a military confrontation with the West. I think many people in the West need to stop and put themselves in Russia's shoes for a moment, it helps to understand their position. Putin still very much thinks in the old 'spheres of influence', Ukraine is a cornerstone of his post-soviet regional integration ambition and through historical and cultural ties a critical part of Russia's sphere. Moscow simply will not accept it entirely shifting to the West, it has made that absolutely clear with its actions now. This is Putin's cuba as you will. We celebrate Kennedy's determination to keep Russian rockets off the island but somehow we can't see how NATO is doing exactly that in Russia's backyard?

Also, I firmly believe the worst is now behind us, Russia made its point, even got what it wanted and is not going to push its luck over the East of the country. Nor could it really, the amount of Russian speakers in those regions really isn't large enough to warrant annexation like it does in Crimea.  Both sides will now probably come to the table and draft out some sort of agreement over Ukraine's future, which is quite sad because I doubt Ukraine will get much say in this. They'll go to the polls, after which a new constitution will have to be drawn up that gives russian speakers in the east more rights and possibly even dictates 'neutrality' for the country. That's my bet anyway, and it's also what Russia is pushing for now.

[Sachaztan]

Nor could it really, the amount of Russian speakers in those regions really isn't large enough to warrant annexation like it does in Crimea.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia only had a Russian minority but that didn't stop Russia. Iirc it's the same story with Transnistria.

[Bear]

Gunmen storm Ukrainian warship in Crimea: spokesman
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iCFAPaQTUjQpOf4kFUr-dl71ce-Q?docId=c21a734d-e5c2-4afe-9883-44e93c984fde&hl=en

and German elite troops help russians in crimea?


www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/krim-krise-us-banken-warnen-vor-sanktionswettlauf-a-959667.html