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[Tachibana]

I thought it would be fun to dig through the available doctrine data to see what kind of conclusions we can find. Analytics is all the hype and I figure lets see if we can apply it to EIR. We can look at things like win rates, most common doctrine selections, biggest warmap contributors, average number of repairs used in companies and so on. I'll start with faction win % and common doctrine selections.

If there are other things you wonder about, reply and let me know what you wanna see. If its something I can crunch numbers on, I will (as long as it doesn't effect privacy)


Here are some factional win rate tables.

[Tachibana]

Reserved for doctrine pick %

US Infantry
US Armor
Airborne Company

Royal Commandos
Royal Scottish Engineers
Royal Artillery

Blitzkrieg
OKH
Schwere Panzer

Luftwaffe Tactics
Scorched Earth
Panzerwaffe

[Tachibana]

Reserved for requests

[CrazyWR]

interesting to see the numbers, thank you posting. 

Looks to me like there is either a lack of top Wehr players or Wehr could use a look, which seems surprising.

[aeroblade56]

interesting to see the numbers, thank you posting. 

Looks to me like there is either a lack of top Wehr players or Wehr could use a look, which seems surprising.

a bit of both. im sure if skaffa were to abuse axis those numbers would be alot closer.

[GrayWolf]

Allies > Axis, my theory has been confirmed

[CrazyWR]

a bit of both. im sure if skaffa were to abuse axis those numbers would be alot closer.

Well of course, but he would skew the number whichever way he wanted.  I think the subset of players he picked are a good representation of the problem though.  You've got 3 factions around 70% roughly, and then one 15% below that.  I'm in no way a Wehr fanboy like Aloha, but it at least is worth looking into to see what may be causing this. 

I'm curious if there is any way to see how much pop each company brings to the battle each game across the community? 

[Tachibana]

While I can analyze the total pop of the currently present companies, there are two issues with thats data.
1.) I have no real way of figuring out if the companies are fully built or need some post game rebulding.
2.) It takes an absurd amount of time.

I could try a limited function like " average amount of infantry squads per company" but that still falls into pitfall 1.

[CrazyWR]

True enough.  Just was trying to think of why Wehr may be failing.  No worries.

[TheVolskinator]

22 Infantry companies.

28 picks of Rangers.

Wat.

[Tachibana]

edit: nvm. The win/loss tables only count companies that have actually played battles. There are actually 35+ inf companies if you include the 0-0 ones,

The doc pick graphs take in picks regardless of whether the company has been in a battle or not.

[TheVolskinator]

As I go through the doctrines, looking at under-chosen ones and how they should be buffed, I can only shake my head at the frankly unimaginative job that was done naming the doctrine unlocks.

Tankriders is in AB, and has nothing to do with riding on tanks. The tank-riding unlock is non-sensically named after a Skaffa quote. Improved Condensers was named regarding a water-cooled MG water condenser, but only buffs PIATs and units in trenches. Artillery Specialists only covers mortars. Welcome to the Ostfront, except this is in Normandy.

So rename them, Volsk!

Ja, I'll get right on that...if I just rename them in the SQLs, future devs will have no idea where to look. Alternatively, I can go through the brain-purging job of renaming all of the stupidly named unlocks in the RGDs, re-assigning them to units, re-naming them in the luaconsts, and then renaming them through SQL.

Plz, plz never name stuff in the future guise, srsly. Srsly guise.

 

EDIT: For a "super OP unlock" (OMG RIFLES KILL ME GRENS - TERRA; yeah, I fokkin hope so for 90 MP) Fightin' Spirit is practically never taken. Lel.

[Tachibana]

I am 99% sure you are the only one who cares that much.

[TheVolskinator]

F it. I've done enough work.

I'll just rename via SQL and when people are confused as to what RGDs line up with which unlock, I'll just blame 'the previous devs'.

[Tachibana]

A sensible dev would not have gotten into the situation.
A prudent dev would just leave it alone.
A volsk dev will change it cause it tickles his tits.

[TheVolskinator]

I looked at each doctrine and looked at the least-chosen top unlocks, trying to figure out how they could be buffed.

From my notes:

Infantry
   Arty Plotting - scatter bonus from 0.7 to 0.66 (small but it looks better, mentally)
   Spirit - will probably be even worse post patch; will need touching up in R031
   LnL - probably overshadowed by the OP ranger buffs

AB
   Currahee - AB Rifles/Engies not outstanding enough to warrent picking this unlock. Other problems include the dominant AB strat being RRs in smoke w. LVs for AI. AB Rifles/Engies don't fit into this strat, and are thus rarely taken. The HHAT price nerf MIGHT fix this (less AB -> more AB rifles etc, unless braindead, in that case, more normal rifles)
   Fight Another Day - WHY WOULD YOU NOT TAKE THIS? ITS LITERALLY THE RETURN OF GODMODE M10s!!!!
   Tankriders - 99% of EiR players stop their vehicle before they fire. Even if they keep moving, it's a whopping 12.5% accuracy bonus (vs. standing still) w. the AB Rifle aura...it's pretty bad.

Armor
   Let em have it - 99% sure most players (that actually pick this) just pick this for the garrison ability, and it just turns your tanks into oversized HTs. Other problems...well, no 'problems', but tank garrison is of limited utility. You can use it to save pinned squads (but you will take damage from AT) by driving up to them and issuing a garrison order, or you can use it in aggressive pushes...but that will probably lose you your tank
   McNair's Doctrine - Who on earth (besides me) would try to vetwhore an M10? M18s haven't been seen in active use for months. Unlock is pretty bad overall; offers no up-front bonuses (Sherman armor? A bonus? No.)
   Rangefinding Experts - Arty recharge buffs are stupid. Changing to 0.66 scatter on Callie, Spergshing, and Fatso
   Urban Survival - After cursory digging through the RGDs, it seems tank guns don't have an accuracy penalty vs. units in L/H cover. So...more accuracy is useless in practice

[Tachibana]

THe following doctrines have 0 selections:
Sturmgeschutz Abteilung
Fear
SE rocket strike


Analysis of WM meta:

Blitz:
There are currently 26 companies with tigers unlocked
100% of them are running 'Fear in the Hearts of Men'
92% of them are running 'Hero of Villers Bocage'
48% of them are running 'Schwere 101'
42% of them are running 'Panzer Ace!'

There are currently 16 companies with active tigers in them
6 of them are running double Tigers
50% of Double tiger companies have 4 of the above doctrines
50% of Double tiger companies run 2 of the above doctrines
The win % of double tiger companies is 68%
The win % of 2 doctrine double Tiger companies is 66%
The win % of 4 doctrine double tiger companies is 70% (with all 7 wins from one company)

40% of single tiger companies are running 4 doctrines
30% of single tiger companies are running 2 doctrines
20% of single tiger companies are running 1 doctrine
10% of single tiger companies are running 3 doctrines

Win % of 4 doctrine single tiger companies is 42%
Win % of all other single tiger companies is 42%

There are 6 Blitz companies with 0 tiger doctrines
The combined win % of those companies is 43%
50% of them have a winning rate with a combined record of 13-8
50% of them have a losing rate with a combined record of 5-16

All inactive tiger companies ( those with tiger doctrines but no Tiger currently in them) have a win rate of 9% (3-30 record)


Conclusion:

A vast majority of people who pick up blitz choose to build a tiger company.
The results of this are extremely bi-polar. Either they can handle the micro and low company size management of Tigers or they cannot. Those that succeed gain a very high win % (66%), those that fail to learn how to use a tiger fail miserably (9% win rate).

Those that eschew tiger companies have a more standard win% spread (43%), though still slightly under performing.

The combination of the Bi-Polar nature of tiger companies and the slightly below Par performance of non-tiger companies is the reason for the low win % of Blitzkrieg. However, looking at the spread of tiger and non tiger win% companies, I am not sure that it is due to the doctrine being weak. Rather, the builds seem to have a very slim margin for error. If you are good enough with your micro and build, you will see good results regardless of whether you are tiger/non tiger(66%/62%), however, if you are not a player capable of this margin, you will fail miserably tiger or non tiger build (9%/23%). Although, it would seem that the non-tiger build is slightly more forgiving of misplay than tiger builds (which makes sense given the high resource cost of a doctrine'd tiger)

Basically, it seems to be a company with a very high skill floor. If that is a good or a bad thing is up to the Devs. Ill try and dig into the disparity in non-tiger blitz companies in the next post.

[CrazyWR]

This is really awesome information man.  I would like to note, having just created a tiger company last night, that getting all 4 unlocks on tigers makes them super ridiculously expensive (1940 MP seems over the top to me).  I'm not sure if that is just me or what.


Also I would like to point out that the Joint Ops unlock which is a top t3 in Blitz has gren buffs in there that seem much more in line with what used to be called defensive.  I used to previously run a heroic crit gren spam company with that joint ops buff of extra medkits and nades, and it was fun.  Curious if someone can see if you can switch that buff with, say, the buffs from oberkommando West(top t3 unlock from Defensive) which fits the 'Panzer Recon' theme a bit more I think. 

[Tachibana]

WM meta analysis

Blitzkrieg Non-Tiger

When looking at the doctrinal split between the Winning and losing Non-Tiger blitzkrieg companies, there is not too much differentiation. (Blue winning, Red losing)
Doctrine Pick Comparison

Only a couple of key differentiations seem to come out of it.

The winning companies had a heavy investment in 'Assault Tactics' and 'Territory Blitz' while the losing companies seemed to invest more heavily into 'Joint ops' and 'Stuka Dive Bomb'

That would seem to indicate the winning companies were geared more towards infantry use while the losing ones were looking for more of a combined arms approach. Even so, this differentiation cannot be read too much into as there is basically major overlap in every other doctrine selection. This means that we'll need to dig deeper to assess build and playstyle.

Blitz A coys build spread
Blitz B coys build spread

What we notice right away is the increased use of both Assault Infantry(Storms, KCH) and support weapons by the A coys over the B coys.
Another point of note is that that A coys seem to have more armor incorperated vs the higher % of Light Vehicles in the B coys. Despite the higher amount of armor in the A coys, there are more repair squads in the B coys.

Even so, The only definitive thing to take from this is that the Coys with a higher win% hold Stormtroopers and KCH in higher regard than the B coys. We can take a deeper look at the support weapon and armor spreads of the two sets.

Blitz A support spread
Blitz B support spread
Blitz A Armor Distribution
Blitz B P4 Town

The Blitz A players overwhelmingly prefer the MG42/Pak combo while Blitz B players seem to have a skewed preference for the Axis Mortar.
In addition, it would seem the Blitz B companies Comprise solely of Pumas/P4s while the Blitz A players have a more spread selection of Vehicular support.
Another point to note is that while Blitz B companies had more selections of Improvised Transports, there were no Stuka's present while the 1 Blitz A player with the doctrine had 2. This would indicate a dead doctrine choice which is a serious detriment to a company for those Blitz B players.


Despite all this info, Its hard to see a real differentiation in these company builds with such a small sample size. One could say that More storms and mg42's is the way to win, but when you looks at the spread of stormtroopers accross the 3 Blitz A coys, its 12-7-0.
HMG 42 use is definately a bit more diversified with a 3-4-2 split. However, to say that all the Blitz B players needs to do to win more is "Add more HMGs" seems a bit simplistic.

Basically, without seeing replays of these companies in action, its hard to say why Group A is winning and why Group B is losing based soley on this information. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong areas or not going into detail enough on one area. If you have an Idea of what I should be looking at, feel free to suggest.

[TheVolskinator]

Assess OP infantry next ))